CFW Week 11 Forecast – BYU-Texas Tech; Texas A&M-Mizzou
First CFP rankings are out
The College Football Playoff Selection Committee released the first of six CFP rankings on Tuesday night. Five more rankings will be released weekly between November 11 and December 7.
This year, the 12 teams in the playoff will be seeded as they are ranked, with the understanding that the playoff must contain the highest-ranked team from each of the Power Four conferences, along with the highest-ranked Group of Five team.
The top 4 teams in the initial rankings are 1st Ohio State, 2nd Indiana, 3rd Texas A&M and 4th Alabama. The top 4 teams will receive a first-round bye in the playoff. The next 6 teams are 5th Georgia, 6th Ole Miss, 7th BYU, 8th Texas Tech, 9th Oregon and 10th Notre Dame.
The 11th and 12th ranked teams are Texas and Oklahoma, respectively. However, 14th-ranked Virginia replaces Texas as the 11th seed in the playoff and unranked Memphis replaces Oklahoma. Virginia is the highest-ranked ACC team, and Memphis is the highest-ranked Group of Five team. Keep in mind, these rankings are subject to change and will change each week. The final rankings and playoff seeding will be announced on Sunday, December 7.
The other ranked teams in the CFP poll are 13th Utah, 15th Louisville, 16th Vanderbilt, 17th Georgia Tech, 18th Miami, 19th USC, 20th Iowa, 21st Michigan, 22nd Missouri, 23rd Washington, 24th Pitt and 25th Tennessee.
Three games this weekend that will have a direct impact on the CFP rankings are BYU at Texas Tech, Texas A&M at Missouri and Oregon at Iowa. That’s a good segue into this week’s Top-10 games.
The game of the week is BYU (8-0) at Texas Tech (8-1). This should be a battle to the end. A home game for the Red Raiders gives the advantage to Texas Tech.
Two more Big 12 games are among the Top-10 games. But neither should impact the CFP rankings. First we have Kansas (5-4) at Arizona (5-3). Should Arizona win out, finishing 9-3, the Wildcats could possibly have a shot at making the CFP. But the odds are not good. Still, this will be a good game between the Wildcats and the Wildcats.
Then we have Iowa State (5-4) at TCU (6-2). Should TCU win out, finishing 10-2, the Horned Frogs would have a darn good chance of making the CFP. Again, the odds are not favorable. Can Iowa State break out of its funk?
The runner-up to the game of the week is Texas A&M (8-0) at Missouri (6-2). A&M is one of the Top 4 teams in the CFP rankings. Missouri is in the Top 25. So far no one has conquered the Aggies. At home, Mizzou has a fighting chance.
Another interesting contest in the SEC is LSU (5-3) at Alabama (7-1). Like Texas A&M, Alabama is one of the Top 4 teams in the CFP rankings. Under an interim coach, LSU will be playing for pride. The opponent is Alabama so the Tigers will be fired up. But their fire won’t be hot enough.
Finally in the SEC, we have Georgia (7-1) at Mississippi State (5-4). This should be easy pickins for Georgia. But Mississippi State has been difficult for almost everyone else this season. And Miss State is at home. This could be quite a game between the Bulldogs and the Bulldogs.
The Big Ten has two good affairs this week. The best of the two is Oregon (7-1) at Iowa (6-2). The CFP rankings have Oregon in the playoff. Iowa is knocking on the door. Iowa can play defense. And unlike recent years, the Hawkeyes have an offense this year. The Ducks better have their quackers in gear.
The other interesting Big Ten encounter is Northwestern (5-3) at USC (6-2). The Trojans have a good shot at making the CFP. But Northwestern can be stubborn and dangerous.
There are two more games in the Top 10, involving American Conference teams. To begin with, how about Navy (7-1) at Notre Dame(6-2). A Navy win would most likely make the Middies the highest-ranked Group of Five team. But what are the odds of Navy winning? Still, it could be a good game.
We wrap up with a good one in the AC – Tulane (6-2) at Memphis (8-1). Memphis is currently the leading Group of Five team for the CFP. But Tulane is talented enough to knock off the Tigers. Memphis can’t afford to slip up.
One other game I am curious and interested to see how it plays out is Wake Forest (5-3) at Virginia (8-1). The Deacons surprised SMU a couple of weeks ago. Can they surprise the Cavaliers?
It’s going to be another fun weekend.
College Football Week 11 began Tuesday night with two Mid-American Conference games. Akron blasted Massachusetts, 44-10. UMass got all 10 of its points in the first quarter and was shut out for the remainder of the game. Akron running back Jordan Gant ran for 153 yards.
In the second game, Ohio slipped by Miami (Ohio), 24-20. In a game that seesawed back-and-forth throughout the contest, the lead changed hands five times. Trailing Miami 20-17 with less than 3 minutes remaining, Ohio scored its winning touchdown with 2:15 on the clock.
College Football Week 11 resumed Wednesday night with two more MAC games. Trailing Kent State 13-10 late in the fourth quarter, Ball State scored a touchdown with 1:53 remaining to beat Kent State, 17-10.
Toledo crushed Northern Illinois, 42-3. Toledo quarterback Tucker Gleason was 25-31-0, passing for 309 yards and two touchdowns. Gleason also ran for another touchdown.
The Top-5 teams in this week’s FCS Coaches Poll are 1st North Dakota State (9-0), 2nd Montana (9-0), 3rd Montana State (7-2), 4th Lehigh (9-0), and 5th Tennessee Tech (9-0). Lehigh is a non-athletic scholarship FCS team. Other non-athletic scholarship FCS teams ranked are 13th Harvard (7-0) and 23rd Presbyterian (8-1).
By the way, West Florida (9-0) is 3rd in the Division II Coaches Poll.
ESPN’s College GameDay will be in Lubbock, Texas, at the BYU-Texas Tech game….FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff will be in Iowa City, Iowa, at the Oregon-Iowa game….SEC Network’s SEC Nation will be in Starkville, Mississippi, at the Georgia-Mississippi State game….The ACC Network’s ACC Huddle will not be at a game this week. Enjoy the shows!
Actress Diane Ladd died on November 3. Her acting career spanned 70 years. She appeared in more than 200 films and television shows. Some of her films included “Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore” (1974), Chinatown” (1974), “National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation” (1989), Wild at Heart” (1990), “Rambling Rose” (1991) and “Primary Colors (1998), among others. She was the mother of actress Laura Dern. A native of Laurel, Mississippi, Rose Diane Ladner was 89.
College and AFL/NFL football player and sports broadcaster Bob Trumpy died on November 2. A tight end, Trumpy played college football for Illinois and Utah. He played 10 seasons (1968-1977) for the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFL and NFL. After his playing career, Trumpy spent many years as a broadcast color analyst, calling four Super Bowls. He also called four Pro Bowls, six Hall-of-Fame games in football and three Ryder Cups and worked three Olympics. Trumpy joined NBC 1978 and over the years he worked with Bob Costas, Don Criqui, Bill Walsh, Dick Enberg, Paul Maguire and Phil Simms. A native of Tremont, Illinois, Robert Theodore Trumpy was 80.
Have a good weekend! See you Monday morning with the Week 11 Results.
Touchdown Tom
November 6, 2025
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for
Week Eleven’s 10 Biggest and Most Intriguing Games….and then some
GAME OF THE WEEK: 1. #8 BYU (8-0) at #9 Texas Tech (8-1) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ABC – A key game in the Big 12, the home field advantage could be the difference in this contest. BYU may be the most balanced team in the country. On offense, the Cougars are averaging 217 yards a game passing, and 217 yards game rushing. You can’t get mor even than that. The offense is run by quarterback Bear Bachmeier. He not only contributes to the passing (1,693 yards), but also to the rushing. BYU’s leading rusher – L.J. Martin – is injured and may or may not play. Texas Tech has an explosive offense (44 points a game) and an explosive defense (13 points a game). In recent weeks, the Red Raiders have been relying on backup quarterbacks. But everyone has come through. That’s how talented Tech is. The Raiders have the Cougars seeing Red – Texas Tech 31, BYU 24.
RUNNER-UP: 2. #3 Texas A&M (8-0) at #19 Missouri (6-2) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – The Aggies will put their 8-0 record on the line in Columbia. The pressure to remain undefeated has to be heavy. Quarterback Marcel Reed helps to relieve the pressure. He has passed for 1,972 yards. Reed is definitely a threat to any defense. Mizzou counters with quarterback Beau Pribula. He has passed for 1,685 yards. Like BYU, Mizzou is pretty even passing (237 yards a game) and rushing (236 yards a game). A balanced attack is an advantage. But not enough to get by the Aggies – Texas A&M 30, Missouri 27.
REST OF THE BEST: 3. #6 Oregon (7-1) at #26 Iowa (6-2) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, CBS – These two teams are similar. Both average 31-32 points a game. Both hold their opponents to 13-14 points a game. Iowa has lost two games. However, the losses were by a total of 8 points. Oregon is averaging 247 yards a game passing and 237 yards a game running. The Ducks waddle through Iowa City – Oregon 23, Iowa 20.
4. #35 LSU (5-3) at #4 Alabama (7-1) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – So, how will LSU play under an interim coach? It should be interesting. The Tigers may be more fired up. LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is in need of a good game. He has passed for 1,806 yards. There is not much room for improvement from Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson. He has passed for 2,184 yards. Since the Florida State game at the beginning of the season, Simpson has been near perfect. Alabama definitely has the better offense. The defenses are about the same giving up 18-19 points a game. Simpson keeps up his Heisman Trophy hopes – Alabama 30, LSU 23.
5. #5 Georgia (7-1) at Mississippi State (5-4) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ESPN – All season, Mississippi State has been making it tough on its SEC opponents. But the Bulldogs always come up short – generally by a few points, maybe at the end of the game or in overtime. Finally, last week, Miss State broke the spell. The Bulldogs won their first SEC game of the season. Can Miss State make it two SEC wins in a row? Or will the Bulldogs keep it close, but lose? Or will they get blown out by Georgia? Miss State quarterback Blake Shapen has passed for 2,148 yards. He’s a threat to the Georgia Dawgs. Since losing to Alabama, Georgia has won four-straight games. Quarterback Gunner Stockton has passed for 1,770 yards. Both teams are averaging 33 points a game. Georgia is a little better on defense. The Bark Boys could have a letdown after the emotional win over Florida. Is there an upset on the horizon? Close, but no banana for the boys from Starkville – Georgia 28, Mississippi State 20.
6. Navy (7-1) at #10 Notre Dame (6-2) – (AC vs. Ind) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, NBC – The Irish are on a mission. The mission is to make the CFP. Win out and Notre Dame should be in good shape. Lose and it’s curtains. Navy shouldn’t be a threat to the Irish. Not unless quarterback Blake Horvath can pull out a few miracles. He’s capable of doing that. Notre Dame has a good offense. But the Irish don’t have the best defense in the world. Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love has run for 894 yards. Love could be a problem for Navy’s defense. Both Notre Dame and Navy are averaging 36 points a game. Notre Dame’s two losses are by a total of 4 points. The Sailors run into rough seas in South Bend – Notre Dame 31, Navy 19.
7. Northwestern (5-3) at #20 USC (6-2) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 9 pm ET, Friday, FOX – Northwestern pulled one surprise this season – beating Penn State. The Wildcats would love to surprise USC. Northwestern can play defense. It’s one of the best. But the Wildcats lack an offense. Speaking of offense, the Trojans are averaging 40 points a game. And the USC defense seems to be getting better. Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava has passed for 2,315 yards. He’ll be a challenge for the Northwestern defense. The Wildcats aren’t ready for Hollywood – USC 28, Northwestern 20.
8. Tulane (6-2) at #22 Memphis (8-1) – (AC vs. AC) – 9 pm ET, Friday, ESPN – Tulane is all about Jake Retzlaff. Retzlaff has passed for 1,622 yards and run for 513 yards. He’ll need to be sharp for Tulane to beat Memphis. Tulane probably doesn’t have the offense or the defense to beat Memphis. The Green Wave are no better on offense than they are on defense – averaging 26 points a game and giving up 26 points a game. Memphis, meanwhile, is averaging 38 points a game. That’s because of quarterback Brendan Lewis. Lewis has passed for 1,869 yards and run for 562 yards. Memphis also holds opponents to 19 points a game. The Green Wave are looking Blue in Memphis – Memphis 31, Tulane 23.
9. Kansas (5-4) at Arizona (5-3) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN2 – These are two pretty evenly matched teams going at it in Tucson. The home field should be helpful to the Desert Wildcats. Kansas centers around quarterback Jalon Daniels. If Daniels is on, Kansas is on. He has passed for 1,991 yards. Arizona relies on Noah Fifita. Fifita has passed for 2,042 yards. Both teams won big last week. Arizona wins bigger this week – Arizona 30, Kansas 23.
10. Iowa State (5-4) at TCU (6-2) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, FOX – If there is a disappointing team this season, it is Iowa State. The Cyclones’ season has been strange. Iowa State started out 5-0. Now they are on a 4-game losing streak. Quarterback Rocco Becht has passed for 2,119 yards. TCU has been surprisingly good. The Frogs could become surprisingly better. They have a better offense than Iowa State. The Frogs are averaging 35 points a game. That’s because of quarterback Josh Hoover. Hoover has passed for 2,371 yards. On defense the two teams are giving up 23-24 points a game. Make it a 5-game losing streak – TCU 28, Iowa State 27.
YE OLDE STOMPING GROUNDS:
Colorado (3-6) at West Virginia (3-6) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, TNT – Believe it or not, West Virginia is actually favored in a game. It’s the first Big 12 game the Mountaineers have been favored in this season. Oddsmakers have WVU a 7-point favorite. Colorado will be out to do something about that. Both teams have been dismal on offense – even worse on defense. Both are averaging 22-23 points a game and giving up 30 points a game. But West Virginia may have found their quarterback last week in freshman Scotty Fox. Fox was instrumental in WVU’s win over Houston. Meanwhile, Colorado is still searching for a quarterback. It will be freshman vs. freshman as Colorado goes with freshman quarterback Julian Lewis. The Buffaloes can’t handle the country roads – West Virginia 27, Colorado 26.
Florida (3-5) at Kentucky (3-5) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, SECN – Playing under an interim coach, Florida played inspired football last week against Georgia. Had quarterback D.J. Lagway played better, the Gators might have won that game. Lagway is due to have a good game. He has passed for 1,679 yards. Both offenses are only averaging 22 points a game. Last week, Kentucky had no offense in beating Auburn 10-3. Florida has the better defense of the two teams. Kentucky is giving up 27 points a game on defense. Over the years, the Gators have pulled out a lot of close games in Lexington. Make it another one – Florida 24, Kentucky 21.
Nebraska (6-3) at UCLA (3-5) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 9 pm ET, Saturday, FOX – Five of Nebraska’s nine games have been settled by 7 points or less – three of them by 3 points. A sixth game was settled by 11 points. That seems to tell you that whoever wins, it will be close. That seems to be the way Nebraska likes their games. At least one thing will be different for the Huskers this week. They will have a new quarterback. Dylan Raiola is out for the season. Freshman T.J. Lateef will take over the quarterback duties for the Huskers. Nebraska will still have running back Emmett Johnson to help out Lateef. Johnson has rushed for 1,002 yards. It’s hard to predict UCLA. Under interim coach Tim Skipper and new offensive coordinator Jerry Neuheisel the Bruins have been a different team – better on offense. On defense, not a lot has changed for UCLA. This could be another close game for the Huskers. But not to their liking – UCLA 30, Nebraska 28.
Duke (5-3) at Connecticut (6-3) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, CBSSN – The Dookies got a big win last week over Clemson. It’s not often that Duke beats Clemson. As a result, the Dookies could have a letdown this week. It wouldn’t surprise me. Duke quarterback Darian Mensah has been amazing this season. He has passed for 2,572 yards. But UConn counters with quarterback Joe Fagnano. He has passed for 2,529 yards. Both teams are averaging about 36 points a game on offense. Both are giving up around 26 points a game on defense. UConn also has a talented running back in Cam Edwards. He has run for 815 yards. The combination of Fagnano and Edwards will make it tougher on the Duke defense. But the Devils are just a little too hot for the Huskies – Duke 31, Connecticut 30.
#1 Ohio State (8-0) at Purdue (2-7) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 1 pm ET, Saturday, BTN – No one has been able to stop the Buckeyes. Ohio State is beating its opponents 37-7 per game. Quarterback Julian Sayin has passed for 2,188 yards. The Buckeyes have a crew of running backs. If one isn’t clicking, another one is. Purdue actually found some life against Michigan last week. The Wolverines only beat the Boilers by 5 points – 21-16. Purdue quarterback Ryan Browne seems to be getting better. He has passed for 1,822 yards. The Horseshoe overwhelms Purdue – Ohio State 31, Purdue 20.
ELSEWHERE AROUND FLORIDA:
UTSA (4-4) at #31 South Florida (6-2) – (AC vs. AC) – 7:30 pm ET, Thursday, ESPN….
#33 Houston (7-2) at UCF (4-4) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 8 pm ET, Friday, FS1….
Stetson (3-6) at Marist (3-6) – (Pioneer vs. Pioneer) – 1 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
FIU (3-5) at Middle Tennessee (1-7) – (C-USA vs. C-USA) – 3 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
Tulsa (2-6) at Florida Atlantic (3-5) – (AC vs. AC) – 3 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
Bethune-Cookman (5-4) at Grambling State (6-3) – 3 pm ET, Saturday….
Florida A&M (3-5) at Arkansas-Pine Bluff (1-7) – 3 pm ET, Saturday….
Syracuse (3-6) at #18 Miami (6-2) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN….
Florida State (4-4) at Clemson (3-5) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, ACCN….
Quotes of the Week
“Is Iowa a real CFP contender, or just a cornfield mirage?” CBS Sports writer Tom Fornelli.
“I heard through the grapevine that LSU was having conversations with Nick Saban. That would be awesome if we could bring Nick back,” former LSU and NBA basketball player Shaquille O’Neal.
“Everybody wants to fire their coach. There’s all these jobs out there right now. Who you gonna hire? One week you’re a hero, the next week you’re a zero,” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian, on the coaching carousel.
Touchdown Tom
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
The next CFW – Week 11 Results – will be posted Monday morning, November 10.